by Eric Pagett
In January, Tunisian dictator Zine El Abedine Ben Ali fled his post and his country after 23 years of reign after just 28 days of non-violent protesting. In February, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak surrendered to the pressures of 18 days of protesting and resigned after 30 years of power. March held promises for the ousting of Libyan leader Col. Muammar Qaddafi. However, 65 days after the uprising of civilians in search of democracy swept into Libya, Qaddafi, who took control in the 1969 coupe, is still in power. So what happened? Why is it taking so long? More importantly, will it ever happen? In order to understand what is going to happen next, lets take a look back at the last 65 days.
The uprising of protests and the rebel forces started on February 15th, just four days after former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak was ousted. Col. Qaddafi’s response has been violent and ruthless. He has bombed and killed many of his own civilians, and has bombed oil fields as a message to the West to stay out of the conflict, as the oil fields hold the gas prices of the West in the balance. Producing 1.8 million barrels of crude oil per day, the oil fields are quite lucrative for controlling Qaddafi. Since the stir of discord began, oil prices in North America have risen 6.4%. Immediately following the start of the uprisings, international countries started to get involved. The dire picture of a humanitarian crisis with thousands of civilians attempting to flee, even into recently collapsed Egypt and Tunisia, prompted the international community to take action. Just fifteen days after the revolt began, 110,000 refugees were reported fleeing Libya, almost half fled to the eastern border of Egypt. It was reported that thousands were crossing the border into Tunisia every hour. The safety of migrants became a quick concern. 1.5 million Egyptians worked in Libya prior to Feb 15th, and South Koreans constituted a large enough percent of the population that the South Korean government rescued thousands of their own citizens that had been working in Libya. Just after the new month of March arrived, financial sanctions were placed on Libya as the option of a no-fly zone was introduced. At this point Qaddafi, who has always invited civil war, had killed more of his own civilians then the death tolls in Egypt and Tunisia combined. By this time the Arab League vocally supported the intervention of the UN Security Counsel. The unfortunate brilliance of Qaddafi’s rule is that no one in his cabinet or military had the power or leverage to influence Qaddafi. This resulted in many of his cabinet members leaving, as well as some of his closest confidants seeking asylum elsewhere as they left the stubborn leader. The no-fly zone option then took center stage among the international community. With France and Britain pushing for it, the Chinese and Russian opposed it while Obama remained reluctant. However, within a week the situation worsened and Qaddafi’s relentless killing of his own civilians forced the hand of the West to intervene. A no-fly zone was enforced on March 17th, and the UN forcibly damaged Qaddafi’s air force, airports, and his ability to cause mass harm to civilians. Operation Odyssey Dawn did not reflect the desired results, as the rebel forces were unable to capitalize on the crippled Qaddafi forces. Progress in Libya has since hit a plateau and the next move is yet to be determined.
Libya is an Arab country located on the Northern strip of Africa, surrounded by the Tunisia and Algeria to the West and Egypt to the East. Mostly desert land, Libya has a population of only 6.4 million people. Qaddafi’s government has a stronghold on the welfare of the country due to the large petroleum reserves and a low population. Rebel forces have established their own makeshift government in Benghazi named the Transitional Nation Council, led by Mustafa Abdul Jalil. Rebel forces have control of most of the eastern half of the country, while Qaddafi is holding strong to his assets in the western half. Qaddafi, from Sirte, has held a promise of victory for his forces from the beginning. Qaddafi, seemingly short of rational thinking, is giving the impression that he is ready to fight this one till the end, in which/even if? he will not be leaving on his own two feet.
Is Libya showing the world that the international community is not quite off the hook for creating change in the Middle East? The events in Tunisia and Egypt gave the world hope for the grassroots efforts of the Middle East creating change. Libya has been a different story. Now that international support justified by the desire to protect the rights of civilians (a clause of the 2005 Genocide Act, when the UN General Assembly endorsed the idea of an international “responsibility to protect”) has failed to give the rebel forces enough leverage to make a dramatic impact on their objective, it may take the commitment of international support to go directly at Qaddafi. What does that mean? Well, especially for the United States, it means committing troops to a conflict that may not have a quick exit strategy, when our nation’s debt is already piled to the ceiling and our standing military is spread thin around the world. The preexisting support from international countries (the US, Britain, and France in particular) shows a level of a global conscience. How far will the governing bodies of those countries let the situation in Libya go before they decide it is a moral imperative to intervene? The current Obama doctrine does not support increased US involvement. The US, with an already crippling deficit and a widespread standing military across the globe, cannot afford to commit itself to a conflict with unforeseen conclusion measures.
What is next? Is the uncertainty of what would happen next for Libya cause for the lack of progress? It is unclear what the next move for Libya will be once Qaddafi leaves, whether that is on his own two feet or not. The general consensus is that military rule and religious counseled leadership would not be progressive for Libya. A push for civilian-led democracy holds the most promise. Although the official ousting of Qaddafi has not yet taken place, it is evident that it will happen eventually. The terms under which it happens are debatable, however, the momentum that has been gained thus far means the situation simply cannot return to its original state.
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Eric read articles about Libya in the Christian Science Monitor from February 15th to April 21st to gather background information for this article.